← Luna Cards Store Championships
Water FractalTier 1
at Luna Cards Store Championships
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-4-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.7%
avg ELO +3.4 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1317
· range 1250–1384
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1081
Q1 1250
Q3 1404
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.8% | +6.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Allies | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Diana | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
